Do No Harm researchers Jay Greene and Ian Kingsbury released a report on September 17, 2026, testing the claim that state bans on sex-rejecting procedures for minors would spike teen suicide. They compared CDC completed-suicide mortality with the dates those state bans or restrictions on puberty blockers, hormones, and surgeries actually took effect — not merely when a bill passed.
They ran three models: a standard state difference-in-differences model, a Callaway–Sant’Anna staggered difference-in-differences model, and a national monthly time-series. Across all three, they report no statistically significant increase in teen suicide rates after the policies went into force. In the first model, the estimated change for ages 15–19 is about −0.3 percent, with a p-value that cannot distinguish that figure from zero. The national model for ages 13–17 estimates an effect that rounds to zero.
This is a Do No Harm analysis of CDC data. It is not a randomized trial, and it is not a claim that bans *lower* suicide. It measures completed suicide — not thoughts or attempts. The authors used KFF for which state limits took effect, CDC mortality for 2018–2024, and they note CDC cell-size suppression and that the 15–19 age band includes 18- and 19-year-olds.
The on-site chart on /facts/suicide-myths now includes this study as a row.
Primary source. The Effect of State Bans on Gender Interventions for Minors on Teen Suicide Rates (PDF).
Coverage: Daily Signal, Sept. 17, 2026 and the authors’ New York Post column.